How far can we run from this?
We cannot run away to moon
says Dr. Jayaprakash Muliyil, former Principal, Christian Medical College, Vellore is one of the country’s one of leading epidemiologists.
In 2009, there was an epidemic of H1N1 influenza. What happened to it? It came in and stayed for 2-3 months and spontaneously disappeared. Nothing that we did at the point of time was of help. It went away. Why? It is because of a certain level of herd immunity that was produced by the infection. So, our only hope is that, on its own, this virus is headed line in that way - in a particular way of herd immunity. Unfortunately, we are not sure what percentage of population should be infected before we reach that so-called protective level. From then, it will all come down magically.
The only difference here is
H1N1 is not deadly. But SARS (Corona family) attacked in 2018 or 19 was deadly. Few 000s died. But the logic is correct, it disappeared,after reaching protective level.One difference with respect to SARS incubation period is 2 to 7 days.In Covid, few cases are tested positive even after 21 days with minimal symptoms. So the extreme risk we currently run is the immune infecting the vulnerable and lockdown is the way to contain that. So even after lockdown, maintaining social distancing is the only way to contain and protect the vulnerable.
So the only hope left now is that it will eventually disappear but not before infecting the vulnerable. When will it disappear and how many will it infect before that is what we have to wait and see and let the invisible hand control it.
At Least this answers the question will it ever end without a vaccination? The answer for now is yes.